5 Steps: Pushing and Pulling

Key economic data from the US, China, and Europe will be the driving force for global markets this week. US jobs growth figures for May are expected to show an increase of 180,000 jobs. It is hoped that this will provide enough evidence that the world’s top economy can avoid recession but not force the Federal Reserve to significantly change its hawkish policy. There are concerns about the US government reaching its $31.4tn debt ceiling.

In Europe, the market awaits data on early inflation figures for May, with opinions divided on the extent to which the European Central Bank will raise interest rates. There has been significant market uncertainty following the ECB’s meeting three weeks ago, although business activity in the Eurozone remains robust.

In China, there are concerns over the struggling economy, with recent data highlighting weak domestic demand. However, China’s lottery sales have soared to a decade high, and there is optimism in the interbank repo market.

Meanwhile, the rapidly developing artificial intelligence (AI) sector is causing excitement among investors, triggering a dramatic increase in AI-related shares. The industry has also raised regulatory concerns about job displacement and the spread of misinformation.

Finally, Turkey’s general election will be held on 24 June. President Tayyip Erdogan is expected to gain the upper hand, but with uncertainty over whether the country will stick with its current economic plan, insiders predict high inflation whichever way the election goes.

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