AICPA Survey: Business Executives Remain Uncertain about the U.S. Economy

In the second-quarter AICPA & CIMA Economic Outlook Survey, business executives’ optimism about the U.S. economy followed a familiar pattern of falling one quarter, rising the next, and then dipping again. Respondents in executive and senior management accounting roles expressed a more pessimistic outlook on the economy’s prospects, despite a significant rebound in sentiment last quarter.

According to the survey, 35% of business executives were optimistic about the economy’s prospects over the next 12 months, down from 43% in the previous quarter. The overall trend over the past year has been positive, but there has been a consistent zig-zag pattern quarter to quarter. Tom Hood, AICPA & CIMA’s Executive Vice President for Business Engagement and Growth, noted conflicting signals in the results, with concerns about inflation remaining consistent but worries about worsening conditions increasing.

One of the factors contributing to uncertainty is the upcoming election year. While business executives’ top concerns remained inflation, employee and benefit costs, and availability of skilled personnel, “domestic political leadership” moved up to the fourth spot on the list. The hiring outlook, although still strong, showed signs of softening, with some businesses hesitant to recruit due to uncertainty.

Overall, there is ongoing sideways movement across indicators, as conflicting statistics create a mix of confusing signals for business executives. Despite the fluctuating optimism levels, revenue and profit expectations have been gradually increasing in recent quarters, signaling underlying strength in the economy. The survey highlights the complex mix of factors influencing executive sentiment and economic outlook in the current business landscape.