Attacks on exchanges have not impacted the futures market yet

Speculative positions in favor of the Mexican peso appreciating have increased for 65 consecutive weeks in the futures market of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). As of June 4, before the announcement of the federal government’s call plan C, bets in favor of the currency rose by 3.14 percent. Despite this positive trend, analysts predict that the peso will face volatility in the coming months due to post-election dynamics, sovereign risk rating agencies’ opinions, and the outcome of the US presidential elections.

Recent market evaluations have been focused on the implications of the Mexican election results. Speculative sentiment regarding the Mexican currency was positive until June 4, but if depreciation continues, investors may become more cautious. Following the election on June 2, both the peso and the Mexican stock market experienced volatility, with potential risks including constitutional changes by a Morenoist-controlled Congress, economic package presentation, and US election results affecting tariffs and immigration regulations.

The Mexican peso depreciated over 8 percent against the dollar last week, prompting concerns about its overvaluation compared to other Latin American currencies. Analysts suggest that the peso is substantially overvalued compared to currencies like the Brazilian real or the Colombian peso. The dominance of Morena and allies in Congress raises fears of increased state intervention in the economy, further exacerbating investor uncertainty in the face of potential changes.

In light of these factors, market experts anticipate continued volatility in the Mexican peso’s performance, influenced by political dynamics at home and abroad. The impact of key events, such as economic policy decisions, international rating agencies’ assessments, and US presidential election results, will likely shape the currency’s outlook in the coming months.