• Wed. May 29th, 2024

Baseball Reference Predicts Yankees to End Season in Last Place


Mar 27, 2024

The stat analysts over at Baseball Reference are not optimistic about the Yankees’ playoff chances in 2024. They project the Yankees to have only a 2.7 percent chance to make the postseason and win just 71.6 games, which is worse than the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. These projections are in stark contrast to Fangraphs, who predict the Yankees to win 88 games, the fourth-most in all of baseball. BetRivers Sportsbook is even more bullish on the Yankees, projecting them to win 91.5 games, with the third-best odds to win the most games in baseball at +650.

BetRivers gives the Yankees a 77.01 percent chance to make the playoffs, a significant difference compared to Baseball Reference’s projection. However, Baseball Reference’s projections are based on their Simple Rating System, which calculates run differential and strength of schedule from the previous year’s prior 100 games. This equation does not take into account injuries, players, or variance but focuses solely on run differentials and changes in schedule difficulty.

Despite the pessimistic projections, the Yankees have made significant offseason acquisitions, including Juan Soto, which should greatly improve their offense. Additionally, if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, the Yankees have a chance to turn things around from their disappointing 2023 season.

By editor

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