The Atlanta Braves are once again a favorite in the 2024 projection systems, this time in Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections, which were released at FanGraphs on Friday. These are separate from FanGraphs’ playoff odds and are based on a million simulations.
ZiPS calculates the season by using first- through 99th-percentile projections for each player and making a generalized depth chart, with adjustments based on Szymborski’s personal decisions. The system then generates a million versions of each team, resulting in projections for the upcoming season.
The Braves are projected to have 95 wins, a 92.7% chance of making the playoffs, and a 17.4% chance of winning the World Series. They are also expected to be 10 games better than the Philadelphia Phillies. The Los Angeles Dodgers are projected for 93 wins and a 13.9% chance of winning the World Series.
Szymborski expressed little surprise at ZiPS’ positive outlook for the Braves, citing their success last year and the team’s strong roster. He also mentioned that he has been expecting this outcome since the winter. It is not surprising to find that other projection systems are also bullish on the Braves, given the current state of their team.