Cyprus is facing threats from Hezbollah and Turkey, which has escalated fears of being drawn into the major conflict in the Middle East. This situation could also have implications for the EU as a whole, raising concerns about the potential for a larger conflagration.
Geographically, Cyprus finds itself in a complex neighborhood, with no official relations with Turkey due to the division of the island following a Turkish invasion fifty years ago. Located less than 200 kilometers from Lebanon and only 100 kilometers from war-torn Syria, Cyprus is part of a crisis region. Despite this, residents have historically felt secure. However, recent developments in the Middle East have cast a shadow over the island.
Recent warnings from Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah have directly threatened Cyprus. Fidan suggested that Cyprus could become an operations center for the war in Gaza, while Nasrallah warned that any involvement with Israel in a potential war against Lebanon would make Cyprus a party to the conflict. These threats have sparked concerns about Cyprus’ neutrality and safety, as well as its potential involvement in regional conflicts.
Cyprus has strengthened its ties with Israel in recent years, including joint military exercises and cooperation on security matters. This has drawn criticism from Turkey and Hezbollah, with claims that Cyprus could be used to support Israeli military efforts. The presence of British military bases on the island further complicates the situation, potentially involving NATO if the bases were targeted in a conflict.
Despite the threats and escalating tensions, experts largely believe that the risk of Cyprus being directly drawn into the Middle East conflict is low. The majority of the population shares this view, though concerns about the economic impact of security discussions have been raised. The ongoing situation highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitics and how events in the neighborhood can have far-reaching implications for a small island state like Cyprus.