Defining the composition of the National Assembly in the second round

In Sunday’s elections, the National Grouping and its conservative allies secured 33.15% of the votes, making them the largest political force in the country, according to provisional results released by the Ministry of the Interior on Monday. The left coalition New Popular Front (NFP) obtained 27.99% of the votes, establishing itself as the second largest political force and surpassing President Macron’s group, which received 20.04% of the votes. The traditional right-wing party, The Republicans (LR), only received 6.57% of the votes.

The French National Assembly has 577 seats, and legislators are elected by district. In the first round of elections, a candidate must secure more than 50% of the votes to win a seat. In the recent election, 37 deputies from the National Grouping, 32 from the NFP, two from the Macronist bloc, and three from LR and its allies have already secured their seats for the Second round. Candidates who received more than 12.5% but less than 50% of the votes will compete in the second round, with the candidate receiving the most votes winning the seat.

The National Grouping will be present in 485 constituencies for the upcoming round. The far-right candidates ranked first in 297 constituencies in the initial round. To secure an absolute majority in the French National Assembly, a political party needs at least 289 seats. The left-wing coalition qualified for the second round in 446 constituencies, leading in 157 of them. President Macron’s bloc will participate in 319 constituencies, ranking first in only 69 of them.

Macron’s decision to call early elections backfired, leading to a polarization between left and right in France. If the far right secures the absolute majority in the National Assembly, it can impose cohabitation on the president, limiting his power and focusing more on foreign policy and defense. The economic crisis in Europe, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, has contributed to the rise of the far right parties and their changing discourse.

Leaders of the left coalition have announced their strategy to withdraw third-place candidates to support those with a better chance of defeating the far right. The National Grouping is considering strategic movements to approach LR to achieve an absolute majority. Cohabitation, where the president appoints a prime minister from the parliamentary group with the most seats, may become a reality if no party secures an absolute majority. Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, has expressed her intentions if her party wins an absolute majority.