The latest electoral survey released on Sunday shows that the far-right National Regroupment (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, has secured first place in the polls and is not far from securing an absolute majority in the National Assembly. According to the poll for Sunday Tribune and BFMTV, the RN and its right-wing allies would achieve 36% of the votes in the first round on June 30, compared to 27% for the left-wing New Popular Front. President Emmanuel Macron’s bloc would come third with 20%, followed by the conservative Republicans (LR) with 10%.
Seat projections are difficult to determine before the first round, as the election matchups have not been defined. However, the survey suggests that the RN and its allies could win between 250-280 deputies, which is close to the absolute majority of 289. The left alliance is expected to secure 150-170 seats, while the Macronist majority could fall to 90-110 deputies and the LR to 35-45. Other smaller formations may have 10-12 seats.
The survey also predicts a significant increase in voter participation, with 60% of those surveyed affirming that they will vote. This is a significant increase compared to the European elections, where participation was at 51.49%, and the 2022 legislative elections, where it was only 47.5%.
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