“France’s Recent Election Predictions Raise Concern for Emmanuel Macron, Ukraine, and the EU” – Researcher Notes the Gravity of the Situation

Today, the French will be voting in the first round of early parliamentary elections. These elections were called by President Emmanuel Macron after the results of the European elections were revealed. According to the most recent poll by Ifop Fiducial’s Gallup, the extreme-right National Coalition led by Marine Le Pen is projected to receive 36 percent support. Following behind are the center-left and green coalition with 28 percent, and Macron’s center-right coalition with about 20 percent.

Mujtaba Rahman, a specialist in European politics at the Eurasia Group Research, predicts that the National Coalition will become the largest group in the French National Assembly, a first in French history. The coalition’s attitudes towards Russia and Europe have raised concerns, with Marine Le Pen promising to hold a referendum on the primacy of the French constitution over European law. If they come to power, they may steer European politics in a different direction, potentially impacting French support for Ukraine.

Candidates in the election need to receive at least 12.5 percent of the votes in their constituency to advance to the second round. The National Coalition is currently leading in the polls, with Marine Le Pen’s protégé, 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, likely to become the prime minister if they win. Despite the focus on the upcoming election, Le Pen is already looking ahead to the 2027 presidential elections.

The polls will close in France at 20:00 Finnish time, and the results of the election could have significant implications for the future of France, Europe, and Ukraine.