This Saturday in France is a day of reflection ahead of legislative elections that are expected to be historic. The victory of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) is highly likely, which could lead to the first far-right government in eight decades. The electoral campaign, organized quickly after the surprise call for elections by President Emmanuel Macron on June 9, has now closed.
Voting has already begun in French territories in America and Polynesia, with polling stations opening on Sunday across the rest of the country. French citizens abroad were also able to vote online between June 25 and 27, with a significant increase in voter participation compared to previous legislative elections.
Projections suggest a clear victory for RN and its conservative allies, with the coalition potentially gathering between 34 and 37% of the votes. This would place them ahead of the new Popular Front comprising left-wing parties like La France Insoumise (LFI), Socialist Party (PS), Ecologists, and French Communist Party (PCF).
Once the results are announced on Sunday evening, attention will turn to the strategy each party will adopt for the second round on July 7. It is expected that only a few dozen deputies will be directly elected in the first round out of the 577 seats at stake.
The battle for these 577 seats will involve national political issues intertwined with local concerns. Projections for RN and its allies suggest they could surpass the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority. The far-right candidate for prime minister, Jordan Bardella, has set this as a condition to form a government. The results of these elections will have significant implications for the political landscape of France in the coming years.