It is estimated in the United States that Putin was not responsible for ordering the killing of Navalny.

The director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs stated that those who believe Putin was unaware of Navalny’s murder do not understand how modern Russia operates. He emphasized that the idea of Putin being uninformed about such a significant event is ridiculous, given Putin’s level of control and involvement in high-profile cases like Navalny’s. The director also questioned the intelligence assessment surrounding Navalny’s death, highlighting the political value Navalny held and the perceived responsibility Putin had in determining his fate.

US intelligence officials, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, did not provide details on how the US government reached its conclusions about Navalny’s death. However, Navalny’s passing seemed to signal a concerning trend of opposition figures meeting unfortunate ends in Russia. Since the invasion of Ukraine, additional Russian citizens have died in suspicious circumstances across various continents, suggesting a potential pattern of targeted violence.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment on the issue, while a representative from the Russian Embassy in Washington did not respond to requests for input. Russia’s prison service claimed that Navalny fell into a coma after walking in extremely harsh conditions in a Russian prison known for its brutal environment. Just days before his death, there were discussions between US President Biden and German Chancellor Schulz about a possible prisoner exchange that could have freed Navalny and other Americans detained in Russia. This proposal was part of negotiations that involved demands from the Russian side, including a payment related to a convicted Russian intelligence operative.

The Anti-Corruption Foundation, founded by Navalny, alleged that his death was orchestrated by Putin to thwart the potential prisoner exchange deal. This claim adds complexity to the circumstances surrounding Navalny’s death and raises further questions about political motivations and power dynamics in Russia. Navalny, who was 47 at the time of his death, had been in prison since 2021, further adding to the intrigue and speculation surrounding his demise.