On June 26th around 2:00 p.m., the then commander general of the Army Juan Jose Zuniga led hundreds of soldiers and several tankettes to break into the Murillo Square of La Paz, where the headquarters of the Executive and Legislative Powers are located. Zuniga stated that he sought to “change the government cabinet”, “restore” democracy, and release “political prisoners”. This action came after he had been dismissed by Arce the day before for making unauthorized statements to the media. The military chief had threatened Evo Morales, stating that he would capture him if he persisted in his intention to run in the 2025 elections as a presidential candidate.
During the incursion, images circulated worldwide of an armored car forcing open a door to the presidential palace. President Arce confronted Zuniga and ordered him to retreat before swearing in a new military leadership. Zuniga and the soldiers eventually evacuated the Murillo Square and Zuniga was later arrested and sentenced to six months of preventive detention.
Following the events, Morales accused Arce of orchestrating a “self-coup” to improve his popularity. Arce denied these allegations, leading to a public dispute between the two political figures. The situation escalated as Morales announced plans for a new congress of his party, the Movement Towards Socialism (MAS), in which he intended to proclaim himself a presidential candidate for the 2025 elections.
The ongoing conflict between Morales and Arce is expected to result in turbulence in Bolivia leading up to the 2025 elections. The decision regarding the MAS candidacy and potential division within the party may further complicate the political landscape. It is predicted that the opposition may have a chance to win if the MAS vote is divided between Morales and Arce, but the final outcome remains uncertain.
Despite the heightened political tensions, it is unlikely that another military uprising will occur in Bolivia. The Armed Forces, facing accusations of being manipulated in the recent events, are unlikely to become involved in a similar situation. The failed attempt on June 26 was not considered a coup by many observers, and the staged nature of the event led to skepticism among various political figures. The dynamics of political power in Bolivia are evolving, setting the stage for a contentious electoral campaign leading to the 2025 elections.