During the presentation of the National Bank’s half-year outlook on Friday, Wunsch expressed regret that the housing market issue is not being discussed in the election discourse, despite the fact that policy can have a significant impact on it. Chief economist Geert Langenus highlighted that the Belgian housing market is not performing as well as expected, with a decline in housing investments for three consecutive quarters due to expensive building materials and increased mortgage interest rates. The National Bank now predicts a real recovery in housing investments only in 2026, emphasizing the urgent need for more housing due to affordability issues and an expected increase in the number of families in the coming years.
The National Bank called for an increase in the supply of housing, pointing out that the government can play a crucial role through measures such as increasing social housing or adjusting regulations. They also provided feedback on the renovation obligation, suggesting alternatives such as solar panels and heat pumps to achieve climate targets. The governor highlighted the high cost of housing in other regions, calling for a debate on the impact of policy decisions on housing prices.
In terms of economic forecasts, the National Bank’s projections for GDP growth, business investments, government investments, household consumption, and inflation were in line with previous estimates. They expect steady economic growth with a slight acceleration in 2026. The National Bank noted that business investments are moderating, government investments are declining post-elections, and net exports are expected to make a less negative contribution. Household consumption is projected to remain stable, with a slight decline in the savings rate. Wage moderation and limited job creation are also factors taken into account in the forecasts. Inflation is expected to gradually decrease in the coming years.
Overall, the National Bank’s outlook reflects the current challenges and opportunities facing the Belgian economy, highlighting the importance of policy decisions in influencing key economic indicators such as housing investments and inflation.