Opinion Piece: The World Teetered on the Brink of All-Out War in the South China Sea

In the past, Manila had purposefully avoided invoking the treaty due to past conflicts with China. American military-legal terms considered Chinese actions as a non-kinetic use of illegal force, despite the lack of a clear definition for the term “armed attack” within the treaty.

Despite wanting to de-escalate tensions, Manila feared that the incident on Jun 17 could have potentially led to armed conflict between the countries and even involve American forces. President Marcos addressed troops in the South China Sea unit on Jun 23, emphasizing that the Philippines did not want to start wars.

China may have seen Manila’s caution as a victory, as they pushed the limits of the American-Filipino “red line.” The incident on Jun 17 provided important information, showcasing Manila’s reluctance to escalate tensions and the US’s uncertainty about providing stronger support to the Philippines without invoking the Mutual Defense Treaty.

China’s response to the incident highlighted the vast difference in capabilities between the two countries. Just a week after the altercation, China deployed its largest coast guard vessel near the Sierra Madre outpost, demonstrating its dominance in escalation tactics.