Predicting the Euro 2024 Winner: Artificial Intelligence’s Answer Revealed After 100,000 Simulations

Euro 2024, set to take place in Germany this June, is poised to captivate football fans worldwide. The anticipation for the tournament is not limited to just the fans, as the world of technology also expresses its passion for the beautiful game. An analysis conducted by the Zeileis research group using artificial intelligence (AI) predicts that France is the main favorite to win the trophy, with a probability of 19.2%.

This prediction is based on four sophisticated statistical models that take into account various factors such as the historical performance of each team over the past eight years, expectations and probabilities from 28 betting houses, the individual and collective qualifications of players, and additional variables like the GDP of each country. The models have been trained with data from matches played between Euro 2021 and the present, analyzing goals scored by each team and using the Poisson method to simulate all group stage matches 100,000 times.

The simulation results place England in second place with a 16.7% chance of winning, followed by Germany with 13.7% and Spain with a 12% likelihood of winning, securing them the fourth spot in the predictions. An interactive graph is used to display the expected performance of each team throughout the tournament, showing how their probabilities vary in each phase. England may start with better odds, but France is projected to lead towards the end of the tournament.

While artificial intelligence can offer valuable insights and predictions, the unpredictability and magic of football have the potential to defy even the most accurate models. The surprises and excitement that come with each match keep the nerves of fans on edge, as history has shown that anything can happen on the football pitch.