Health care spending in the United States is projected to increase to $7.7 trillion by 2032, a significant rise from the previous year, according to federal actuaries. The spending is estimated to grow by 5.6% annually between 2023-2032, surpassing the expected 4.3% inflation rate. By 2032, healthcare expenses are expected to make up nearly 20% of the GDP, compared to 17.3% in 2022.
In 2023, there was a 7.5% increase in spending, reflecting a higher use of healthcare services following the end of the COVID-19 public health emergency. Legislative provisions enacted in response to the global pandemic are expected to influence health care spending and health insurance enrollment trends from 2023 to 2032.
The actuaries predict that Medicaid enrollment will decrease from 91.2 million in 2023 to 79.4 million in 2025, following the expiration of the continuous enrollment requirement of the Families First Coronavirus Response Act of 2020. Medicare is projected to have the highest ten-year average spending growth rate due to increased enrollment into the program.
Out-of-pocket spending is expected to slow down during 2025-2026, with an annual growth in patient spending on drugs dropping to 3.7% in 2025. There will be a $2,000 annual Part D out-of-pocket spending cap due to the Inflation Reduction Act and lower gross prices for negotiated drugs. Manufacturer discounts for lower-income patients in 2025 and drug price negotiations will contribute to a decrease in spending.