The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reports that the El Niño phenomenon, which has been affecting the weather in different countries, is receding. This natural weather phase, intensified by global warming, raises temperatures and increases the likelihood of extreme weather events. The WMO predicts that there will be a transition to La Niña by the end of the year, causing opposite weather conditions where surface waters cool and easterly winds strengthen.
The El Niño season that began in 2023 has contributed to heat records over the past year, with every month since June 2023 being record warm. Despite the receding El Niño, the WMO emphasizes that the end of this phenomenon does not mean a pause in long-term climate change, as the planet continues to warm due to greenhouse gas emissions.
The warmer than normal sea surface temperatures associated with El Niño will continue to play a significant role in the coming months, according to the WMO and research professor Aleksi Nummelin from the Finnish Meteorological Institute. While it may be less likely for heat records to be broken as autumn progresses, the transition to La Niña may bring different weather conditions, particularly in the tropical regions.
La Niña is expected to bring heavier rains than usual to parts of South America, Central America, the Caribbean, and the Sahel region in Africa. This may have positive implications, especially in regions that have been affected by droughts and heat due to climate change. La Niña may also affect the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, as it is less likely to have wind conditions that prevent their development.
Overall, the observations of large-scale weather phenomena like El Niño and La Niña improve predictability in terms of rainfall, hurricanes, and other weather conditions. This information can help in better preparing for and issuing warnings for future weather events.