On Friday, July 5, Iran will hold the second round of early presidential elections, which were called after the death of President Ebrahim Raisi in a plane crash on May 19. In the first round that took place on June 28, two candidates emerged as winners. Masoud Pezeshkian, considered a reformer, received about 42% of the votes, while conservative Said Jalili, the spiritual leader’s representative in the Security Council of the Islamic Republic, received about 39% of the votes. The official turnout for the first round was recorded at 40%, the lowest in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
However, there were justified doubts raised by the Iranian opposition regarding the accuracy of the official turnout data. Some analysts believe that the real turnout could have been three times lower than what was reported. With the conservative candidate having a better chance in the second round, as voters who supported other conservative politicians in the first round have no other candidate to back, the outcome will heavily depend on voter turnout. Pezeschkian’s strong showing in the first round may have encouraged voters who were inclined to vote for the reformer.
Although the president of Iran is formally considered the head of state, in reality, the country is governed by the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Ali Khamenei. The second round of elections will be crucial in determining the direction of Iran’s future leadership.