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The Bond Market Showcases American Economic Exceptionalism


Apr 4, 2024

One of my favorite economic indicators that often goes overlooked by mainstream media is the difference between key US and German fixed-income benchmarks. This indicator can provide important insights into the state of the economy. Currently, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note is significantly higher than its German counterpart, with a differential of 200 basis points in favor of the US. This difference has only been reached three times since the start of 2020.

This widening gap between US and German fixed-income benchmarks is a significant development that is worth paying attention to. The current level of 200 basis points is well above the low of 90 basis points seen over the past three years, and is just short of the high of 214 basis points. This indicator can provide valuable information about the relative strength of the US and German economies, as well as insights into global market trends.

While mainstream media may not always focus on these types of indicators, they can often provide important clues about the direction of the economy and financial markets. By paying attention to lesser-known indicators like the difference between US and German fixed-income benchmarks, investors and analysts can gain a deeper understanding of the economic landscape and make more informed decisions.

By editor

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