During his presidency, Trump aimed to withdraw his country from Middle Eastern wars but remained entangled in the region. The potential of his re-election brings relief to old allies but also uncertainty. Trump was known for his pro-Israel policies, exemplified by the “Century Plan” for peace in the Middle East that favored Israel. However, his recent statements during the election campaign, regarding Israel and the Gaza war, have been contradictory. While attacking Biden for withholding arms from Israel, Trump also expressed concerns about Israel losing international support due to the conflict.
Trump’s campaign rhetoric, including a rally where supporters chanted “Genocide Joe,” reflects the confusion surrounding his stance on Israel. Despite the hopes of Israel’s political right for Trump’s return, there are doubts about his consistent support for the country. His administration’s approach to Israel and the Palestinian conflict may vary based on the advice he receives and the composition of his government team.
In the Gulf region, Trump’s relationships with leaders like Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia remain important. The Gulf states, wary of Iran, hope for a tougher stance against Tehran in a potential second term for Trump. However, conflicts may arise over issues like normalization with Israel and economic policies that could strain relations with petrostates.
In terms of Iran, Trump’s “maximum pressure” policy has had significant implications, including the withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and imposing sanctions. If re-elected, Trump is likely to maintain a tough stance towards Iran, possibly imposing further sanctions and pressuring other countries to sever trade ties with Tehran. However, a military conflict with Iran seems unlikely given domestic opposition and international constraints.
The presence of American troops in Iraq and Syria has been a contentious issue, with Trump promising to end “endless wars.” The decision to withdraw troops from Syria in 2019 led to criticism and destabilization in the region. If re-elected, Trump may revisit the issue of troop presence in the Middle East, balancing the fight against terrorism with containment of Iran.
Overall, Trump’s foreign policy in the Middle East remains complex and unpredictable, with implications for regional stability and international relations. His potential re-election could lead to shifts in various aspects of US involvement in the region, impacting allies and adversaries alike.