The soybean and corn harvest is progressing with some delay compared to last season, but estimates are already beginning to appear regarding the volume and value of the grains produced. Good news for Javier Milei’s government comes from a notable productive improvement due to the end of the drought and a recent recovery in international prices. The net income of foreign currency from the sale of agroindustrial products would be 49% higher than last campaign, reaching US$29.8 billion, according to a recent report by IERAL.
The report details that estimates of soybean volumes produced are converging in a range of 49-50 million tons, growing 100% or more compared to the previous cycle. There is greater divergence in corn estimates, ranging from 46.5 million to 55 million tons. Cereal production is expected to be 35-45% higher than the previous cycle. The harvest is beginning to pick up pace, although it continues to lag behind previous agricultural cycles, particularly soybeans.
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported that 77% of the area planted with soybeans had been harvested by the end of the month, with a delay of 12 percentage points compared to previous years. In corn, the harvested area was reaching 28%, with a lag of only 2%. Grain prices in the Chicago Market, which were downward for much of the year, began to recover in May. Soybean and corn prices returned to practically the same level they had at the beginning of the year, while wheat saw a significant increase.
Officials reveal that until the end of May, around 20% of the grains had been sold at a fixed price, lower than historical averages. Marketing is expected to accelerate over time. Based on projections, IERAL estimates gross and net exports of agroindustrial products for US$32.3 billion and US$29.8 billion in 2024, with an improvement compared to 2023. Net exports in the first four months approached US$9.1 billion, with projections for the remainder of the year indicating an increase.