Unspoken rules prevent full-scale conflict between Israel and Hezbollah

The hidden rules established in 1993 have prevented the Israel-Hezbollah conflict from escalating into a full-scale war, keeping the violence within specific boundaries. However, the ongoing war between Israel and Hamas has garnered international attention in the Middle East. On October 7, 2023, Hamas launched a surprise attack in southern Israel, resulting in casualties and hostages. The Israeli army responded by launching a campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Simultaneously, Lebanese Hezbollah forces engaged in daily skirmishes with the Israeli army across the border. Hezbollah announced these attacks to show solidarity with people in the Gaza Strip, leading to widespread violence and evacuations of tens of thousands of people on both sides. The fighting at the Israel-Lebanon border has escalated in recent times, with Hezbollah using precision weapons to conduct raids deep within Israeli territory.

Israeli leaders have issued warnings, cautioning that Lebanon could face a fate similar to Gaza if Hezbollah opens a new front targeting the country. Despite the preparations for war made by the Israel Defense Forces, experts believe that a total war is unlikely due to the long-standing “hidden rules” between Israel and Hezbollah dating back nearly three decades.

Hezbollah’s deputy leader, Naim Qassem, mentioned a “tacit agreement” with Israel in an interview, emphasizing mutual boundaries that shouldn’t be crossed. The conflict’s roots go back to the 1980s, with the subsequent formation of Hezbollah to counter Israeli occupation and influence in the region.

While informal, these unspoken rules have played a significant role in de-escalating tensions between Israel and Hezbollah. The consequences of violating these rules were evident during the 2006 conflict when both sides suffered heavy casualties, highlighting the importance of restraint.

Hezbollah’s recent attacks on Israel have aimed to show solidarity with Hamas, utilizing the rules of engagement to maintain a balance between resistance and avoiding full-scale war. This strategy allows Hezbollah to present itself as a resistance force while preventing a scenario that could jeopardize its position in the region.

These rules have also proven beneficial for Hezbollah in damaging Israel’s strong international image while achieving its goals at a manageable cost. By respecting these boundaries, both sides have managed to avoid a destructive conflict similar to the 2006 war, ultimately allowing them to declare a form of victory amidst ongoing tensions.