The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, has received the blessing of the European Council despite opposition from the prime ministers of Italy and Hungary, Georgia Meloni and Viktor Orban. Now, she must secure the approval of the European Parliament, which will not be an easy task. The vote is scheduled for July 18 during the first plenary session of this legislature in Strasbourg. Two days prior to the vote, the presidency of the European Parliament will also be voted on.
The starting point for von der Leyen’s approval lies with what is called the ‘platform’ of populars, socialists, and liberals. With 399 out of 720 votes from the EPP, S&D, and Renew groups, an absolute majority of 361 votes is needed for approval. The margin of 38 votes is slim, leading to uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the secret ballot. Von der Leyen has been meeting with various group presidencies in an attempt to secure their support.
The outcome of the vote remains uncertain, with predictions indicating a close margin. Discussions are ongoing with different political groups, including the Greens, who hold 53 seats. The president is aiming to build a broad majority for a strong Europe and is engaging with individual MEPs and national delegations to secure their support.
If von der Leyen fails to secure approval from the European Parliament, an institutional crisis would ensue. In such a scenario, her candidacy would lapse, and the leaders of the European Council would need to reconvene to propose another candidate within a month. The situation is tense as negotiations and discussions continue in the lead up to the crucial vote on von der Leyen’s approval.