Identifying players who may regress is important in avoiding lineup pitfalls that can be frustrating. This weekly column will highlight players who are overproducing or underproducing based on their workload, playing time, and opportunity. These players can be valuable to identify before making start-sit decisions. The column will often reference “the process” and other fantasy analyst terms. Recognizing players who are running hot or cold can be beneficial in both redraft and DFS formats.
For Week 1, it may be more challenging to assess regression candidates since it’s the regular season opener and there is limited data. The analysis in this article is based on regression potential from the 2022 season, but by Week 3, there will be more data to consider.
– Geno Smith (SEA): While Smith is a solid fantasy option, it’s worth noting that his touchdown rate in 2022 was higher than his career rate. He had a high touchdown conversion rate inside the ten-yard line, which may be difficult to replicate consistently.
– Ryan Tannehill (TEN): Tannehill may not be the best option for Week 1, but there could be regression potential for him in 2023. His touchdown rate and air yards conversion rate have declined over the past two years. However, if Tannehill has better weapons this season, he could be valuable in deeper leagues.
– Brian Robinson (WAS): Robinson had unlucky touchdown luck in 2022, but he was the team’s preferred short-area ball carrier. If he continues to have that role and gets goal-line opportunities, he could have a strong Week 1 performance against a weak Cardinals rush defense.
– Joe Mixon (CIN): Mixon had inefficient and unlucky production in 2022, falling short of his expected rushing touchdowns. He faces a Browns defense in Week 1 that struggled against the run last season. Mixon could have a promising start to the season.
– Diontae Johnson (PIT): Johnson had a remarkable season in 2022 with zero touchdowns despite a high number of targets. Regression is expected for the entire Pittsburgh offense, and Johnson could benefit from that in Week 1 against the 49ers.
– Marquez Valdes-Scantling (KC): While Valdes-Scantling may not be a popular choice for Week 1 lineups, he had a frustrating season in 2022 with low efficiency. However, he had a significant role in the offense and was successful in deep targets. Against a weak Lions defense, he could have a favorable matchup.
These regression candidates should be considered when making start-sit decisions for Week 1 and beyond.