In recent years, inflation and high prices have been dominant issues for many regions. However, it appears that prices are beginning to stabilize three months into 2023, although there are still uncertainties. These uncertainties include ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, expected weather patterns in the latter half of 2023, economic growth in certain markets, and rising interest rates.
The Q2 Equipment Market Outlook webinar from AEM Business Intelligence sheds light on these uncertainties. The following points were highlighted: Food prices are projected to recover, with the food price index expected to reach 20% in early 2022, as shown in fertilizer, grain, and soybean prices, though they are receding from the peak. The US agricultural market is at risk from headwinds, such as interest rates and banking system stress. A third-party forecast has predicted US GDP growth of 1.1% this year, with a narrow recession expected in either late 2023 or in 2024.
There are also other near-term risks to consider, including Russia’s exit from the Black Sea Grains Initiative and the potential for an El Niño event between July and September. Declining global grain inventories may result in higher-than-expected demand in China, leading to tighter food supplies. The indicators suggest that the markets will continue to tighten. The AEM has scheduled its Q3 Equipment Market Outlook webinar for August 3, and AEM members are encouraged to register and find out more about what is next for equipment manufacturers and the construction industry.
Finally, AEM has also hired a new Markets Analyst for Business Intelligence, Craig Frizzell, who brings almost 20 years of experience in research, data analysis, and visualization. Frizzell has a PhD in Political Science and has provided his expertise to numerous global industrial manufacturers, political research firms in Washington D.C, and financial services firms. The AEM Business Intelligence Dashboard is just one of the many market data products available. For more industry perspectives, subscribe to the AEM Industry Advisor, or contact your Account Success Advisor for more information.