Will France follow in Italy’s footsteps? The post-election scenario.

As the first round of the French legislative elections approaches, concerns are rising across Europe about the potential outcomes. The decision by President Macron to dissolve the National Assembly has sparked fears of instability, not only among markets but also among political experts. Two scenarios stand out as particularly worrisome. The first scenario involves a victory for the Rassemblement national, led by Marine Le Pen, which could lead to significant challenges for Macron’s European project. The second scenario envisions a parliament without a clear majority, which could result in a government of national unity, an unprecedented situation in France.

Some observers draw parallels between the current situation in France and the experiences of other European countries like the United Kingdom with Brexit or Italy with technical governments and political instability. The potential outcomes of the French elections could have far-reaching implications for Europe as a whole. If Macron’s European project is derailed or a government without a majority is formed, it could create significant challenges for the stability of the European Union.

If a government without a clear majority is formed after the elections, it could face numerous challenges in governing effectively. The prospect of a technical government led by figures like Christine Lagarde or Jean Claude Trichet has been suggested as a potential solution to calm the markets. However, the road ahead remains uncertain, with no clear path to forming a stable government in France. The consequences of the French elections could have a lasting impact on the future of the European Union and its member states.