The continued decline in inflation in France is raising hopes for the restart of the French economy. Despite being slight, the initial signs point in a positive direction. INSEE’s provisional figures for April show a further slowdown in inflation to 2.2% over one year, down from 2.3% in March and significantly lower than the 5.9% recorded in April 2023. This decline can be attributed to slowing food prices, a slight decrease in manufactured products prices, and an increase in energy prices.
Although price increases have impacted household purchasing power in the first quarter, the French GDP saw an increase of 0.2%, driven by household consumption and business investments. This growth exceeded earlier expectations of zero growth, signaling the resilience of the country’s economy. Minister of Economy Bruno Le Maire applauded the growth figures, citing them as evidence of the success of the government’s economic strategy.
Despite the positive growth, challenges persist in the French economy. The deficit increased to 5.5% of GDP in 2023, exceeding the targeted 4.9%. Efforts to reduce the deficit and bring it below 3% of GDP by 2027 are met with skepticism. While rating agencies have maintained their confidence in France’s debt repayment capacity, doubts linger about the government’s ability to meet its targets.
Plans to implement cost-saving measures to reduce the deficit could potentially disrupt the growth momentum. Experts warn that a 10 billion savings plan could already impact annual growth by 0.2 points. Concerns remain about the credibility and coherence of the deficit reduction trajectory, with some critics questioning its feasibility. Despite the challenges ahead, the hope is that the French economy can navigate through these obstacles and continue on a path of sustainable growth.