Argentina’s economic activity index is projected to have declined by 6.9% year-on-year in March, marking the fifth consecutive month of contraction and the deepest drop since 2020, according to a Reuters poll conducted on Tuesday. The survey of 13 local analysts indicated that the index likely fell by 7.2% in March compared to the previous month, with year-on-year contraction estimates ranging from 4% to 10.3%.
Pablo Besmedrisnik, an economist and director at Invenomica, pointed out that the decline in sectors related to domestic consumption, industry, and construction is continuing to worsen, while sectors like mining and agriculture are experiencing growth. The industrial production indicator in Argentina showed a 21.2% year-on-year slowdown in March, based on government data.
Looking ahead, economists are cautiously optimistic about the coming months, anticipating a gradual recovery. Federico Gonzalez Rouco, an economist at Empiria Consultores, stated that they do not foresee a rapid rebound in economic activity in the first half of the year. Concerns about inflation and risks related to the foreign exchange market continue to weigh on the outlook for the economy.
Official figures from the statistics agency INDEC are set to be released on Wednesday, providing a clearer picture of the current economic situation in Argentina.