As India heads to the polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi can proudly declare that the world’s largest election is underway in the fastest-growing major economy. With a GDP of $3.5 trillion, India now ranks as the fifth largest economy globally, surpassing its former colonial ruler, Britain. The government is heavily investing in infrastructure projects like roads, railways, ports, energy, and digital infrastructure, enticing multinational companies to consider India as a key element in their “China plus one” strategy.
This economic momentum is expected to bolster Mr. Modi’s chances of securing a third term in office. Projections suggest that India’s GDP may reach $6 trillion by the end of his potential third term, solidifying its position as the third-largest economy in the world. However, India has a history of premature triumphalism, with past moments of optimism fading due to economic challenges.
Despite its impressive GDP growth, India faces significant obstacles such as underemployment and a relatively small labor force compared to its population size. Private sector investment remains lower than pre-2008 global financial crisis levels, and income per person is only a fraction of China’s. Mr. Modi’s economic record is a mix of successes and failures, prompting further scrutiny.
Six books are recommended to understand India’s complex economic journey and assess Mr. Modi’s economic policies. These books provide valuable insights into India’s challenges and possible pathways for sustainable economic growth.