Global economic discussions are currently being dominated by raw material prices, particularly the cost of oil, which has increased by around 10% in the last two months with significant volatility. This short-term chaos has been influenced by various factors such as OPEC+ commitment to production cuts, attacks on Russia’s refining infrastructure, reduced oil imports by China, and unexpected resilience in the US economy. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict involving Israel and Iran, have also played a significant role in driving oil prices up.
The oil market is facing challenges due to disruptions in key transportation routes like the Strait of Bab el-Mandeb and concerns over the Strait of Hormuz. The global shift towards renewable energy sources is creating uncertainty about the future demand for oil, leading to reduced investments in the sector. This combination of short-term chaos and long-term uncertainty is creating an unpredictable scenario for the energy industry.
Price volatility is expected to continue, with analysts forecasting a wide range of prices by the end of the year. However, the outlook is likely to be bullish compared to previous forecasts, raising concerns about inflation and economic activity. Without clear substitutes and significant investments in renewable energy, oil prices are expected to remain relatively high in the medium term.
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