Newly released survey data indicates that Americans are feeling less confident about the state of the economy. According to Gallup, economic confidence ratings dropped from March to April, with inflation remaining high. This is the first decline in economic confidence in seven months, breaking a trend of marginal improvements seen over the previous five months. The federal government’s release of underperforming Gross Domestic Product data in early April likely contributed to this decrease in confidence.
Data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the federal Consumer Price Index have shown increases in personal consumption expenditures and prices, respectively. Inflation is a top concern for 55% of Americans, according to Gallup polling. Additionally, recent GDP data revealed slower-than-expected growth in the first quarter of 2024, which experts had projected to be higher.
Gallup suggests that these economic concerns could have significant political implications. The Economic Confidence Index (ECI) score of -29 is closer to levels seen in 1992 when incumbent president George H.W. Bush lost his reelection bid due to economic concerns. Comparisons to previous years show that when economic confidence ratings were neutral or positive, incumbents were more likely to win reelection. This data suggests that economic factors may play a crucial role in future elections.