According to a Reuters poll, Taiwan’s trade-dependent economy is expected to have grown faster in the first quarter of the year. This growth is supported by a rebound in exports, driven by increased demand for technology used in artificial intelligence applications. Gross domestic product (GDP) is forecasted to have expanded by 5.65% in the first quarter compared to the same period last year. This is an increase from the 4.93% growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2023.
The poll of 18 economists revealed a range of predictions for GDP growth in the first quarter, with forecasts varying from 4.2% to as high as 7%. The strong performance in exports, particularly in the tech sector, has contributed to the overall growth of the economy. In the first quarter, exports increased by 12.9% year-on-year, a significant jump from the 3.4% growth in the fourth quarter of the previous year.
Mickey Liao, an analyst at SinoPac Securities Investment, noted that the manufacturing sector is benefiting from the strong export performance, leading to low unemployment rates. While the first quarter is expected to show the highest GDP growth for the year, a slight slowdown is anticipated in the second quarter, with growth projected to fall to 3.5%.
Taiwan’s statistics bureau raised its forecast for full-year 2024 growth to 3.43% earlier this year, up from a previous prediction of 3.35%. The country’s economy experienced its slowest growth in 14 years in 2023, expanding by only 1.31%. Despite this, Taiwan remains a key player in the global technology supply chain, with significant ties to major companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.
The preliminary GDP reading for Taiwan will be released soon, with revised figures expected to follow in the coming weeks, providing more detailed information and forward-looking forecasts.