Inderes analyst Antti Viljakainen is skeptical about the rumored deal between Brazilian pulp producer Suzano and American International Paper. According to Reuters, Suzano approached IP with a potential purchase offer of $15 billion, close to Suzano’s market value. Suzano is the world’s largest pulp producer, while IP focuses on North American corrugated cardboard and packaging.
Finnish forest companies, such as UPM and Stora Enso, mainly operate in Europe and have limited overlap with Suzano and IP. Viljakainen believes that if the deal were to go through, it would not have a significant impact on Finnish companies. Consolidation in the forest industry can be beneficial, but the potential acquisition seems unusual due to low synergy and large scale.
The deal would allow Suzano to diversify and expand geographically into North America, reducing country risk and entering the packaging business. However, the market response to the news was not positive, and the outcome remains uncertain. Viljakainen questions the potential value creation of the acquisition and doubts its success. Overall, the deal seems questionable and may not materialize.