The Black Swan Event: How ChatGPT Transformed Everything

Sam Altmann was photographed arriving at Hotel Taschenbergpalais Kempinski Dresden in Germany for the 2016 Bilderberg Group Conference. Meanwhile, ChatGPT became publicly available six months prior to this event, and it has revolutionized education, training, hiring, and company stock prices. It was a Black Swan event, an unexpected and rare occurrence that seemed inevitable with hindsight. According to Bill Gates, the creation of AI was as basic as computer chips, the Internet, and PCs. Elon Musk, on the other hand, wants to slow down AI’s development. Warren Buffett has compared artificial intelligence to an atomic bomb.

These hyperbolic statements were made after the release of ChatGPT, an AI chatbot based on GPT-3.5 and GPT-4 large language models by startup OpenAI in November. Generative AI, which includes Google’s Bard and image generators like DALL-E, Midjourney, and ChatGPT, can create something based on prompts, leading many American companies to incorporate it in their technology trends. At least 49 publicly traded US firms mentioned ChatGPT in their May 2023 quarterly earnings calls, indicating that AI is a significant shock to corporate valuations.

ChatGPT has generated a lot of anxiety and excitement since its release, and it is considered a Black Swan event that could change the world as we know it. Goldman Sachs found that generative AI could potentially affect about 300 million jobs, creating a significant disruption in the labor market. This is exemplified by IBM’s decision to slow down or suspend hiring roles that could be replaced by AI, affecting roughly 7,800 jobs. Google co-founder Mustafa Suleiman Deepmind called for a Universal Basic Income to help those whose jobs will be lost to AI. While bots may not replace all jobs, they can improve the efficiency and productivity of existing employees.

In education, ChatGPT has helped students and teachers with writing essays and assignments, but it has also led to plagiarism and false accusations of cheating. Large-scale language models can even impede training in professions such as medicine. ChatGPT could potentially pass all three parts of the US medical licensing exam and offer more empathy than human doctors, though this possibility remains questionable.

Big tech companies such as Google, Meta, and Amazon have invested heavily in AI after the release of ChatGPT. Google declared a “code red” and launched Bard, an improved version of Google Search powered by ChatGPT. Similarly, Meta introduced LLaMA, a large-scale language model like GPT-4. Amazon is working on implementing ChatGPT-like functionality in a secret home robot.

Meanwhile, regulators are watching closely how private companies deploy AI. The EU has taken early steps to ban uses that pose unacceptable risks, and Italy has temporarily banned ChatGPT. The potential of AI has alarmed regulators, including former Google employee Geoffrey Hinton, who spoke candidly to a British government official about its risks. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman warned US lawmakers in May that personalized disinformation targeting undecided voters is a personal fear.

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